Gold Demand in India Seen Declining to Lowest Since 2020

Swansy Afonso
Tue, August 1, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- Gold purchases in India this year are forecast to drop to the lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic hit the second-biggest consuming nation in 2020, with high domestic prices deterring buyers.

Indians are expected buy between 650 and 750 tons of the precious metal in 2023, said P.R. Somasundaram, the regional chief executive officer for India at the World Gold Council. The range is lower than the 774 tons bought last year and the least since the 446 tons purchased in 2020, according to the London-based group’s data.

“Looking ahead for rest of the year, we remain cautious about gold demand as it faces uncertainties due to elevated local prices and a slowdown in discretionary spending,” he said.

Gold is historically a popular investment in India, especially in rural areas where it can be difficult to access banking services. Consumers typically buy ornaments for marriage celebrations, and coins and bars for investment surge during a series of celebrations that culminates with Diwali, or the Festival of Lights, which this year falls in November.

“The success of the monsoon season could bolster sentiment ahead of Diwali season and throw positive surprises,” Somasundaram said.

India’s weakening gold consumption comes as buying by central banks around also slows. That’s contributed to bullion falling about 5% from this year’s peak in early May, although prices have rallied this month on signs the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may be nearing an end.

Benchmark gold futures in India surged to a record high in May and are up about 16% over the past year. Some investors have opted to book profits from these historic levels, boosting gold recycling by 61% on year during April-June to 37.6 tons, Somasundaram said.