UK
This doesn't look good for Wes Streeting...
MAY 14, 2026
Left Foot Forward
Keir Starmer’s premiership remains in peril, with the health secretary Wes Streeting the most prominent resignation from the government so far.
While Streeting’s resignation letter didn’t immediately trigger a leadership contest, his departure nonetheless suggests that an election could be imminent.
There are two routes for this. First, Starmer could decide that he no longer has the confidence of his parliamentary party, and choose to either stand down or set out a timetable for his departure. The other route would be if a 81 Labour MPs nominate an alternative candidate for leader of the Labour Party.
In the latter scenario, Starmer may well decide to fight the leadership contest. Indeed, he has made clear that he intends to. And we now have some insight as to who might win in a head-to-head battle with Starmer.
New polling, conducted by Survation on behalf of LabourList has assessed the mood of Labour Party members on a potential contest.
The poll suggests that the most likely candidate to beat Starmer is Andy Burnham. However, the route to Burnham getting on the ballot remains unclear, given he is not currently in the House of Commons and the Labour Party rulebook requires the party leader to be an MP.
According to the poll, 61 per cent of Labour members would back Burnham, compared to 28 per cent who would back Starmer.
The other candidates who the poll suggests would beat Starmer are Angela Rayner (4 point lead), Ed Miliband (8 point lead).
In bad news for Streeting, the poll has found that just 23 per cent of members would vote for him in a head-to-head contest with Starmer, with 53 per cent backing the prime minister.
Starmer would also see off challenges from Bridget Philipson (21 point Starmer lead), Lucy Powell (24 point Starmer lead), Shabana Mahmood (51 point Starmer leader), Darren Jones (15 point Starmer lead), Al Carns (28 point Starmer lead), Yvette Cooper (14 point Starmer lead) and Louise Haigh (21 point Starmer lead).
If Starmer doesn’t end up on the ballot, it doesn’t seem that Streeting has a clear route to victory. The Survation poll also asked Labour members who they would back in a head-to-head contest with Streeting up against a variety of other potential candidates.
According to the poll, Streeting would lose against every candidate except Shabana Mahmood.
Burnham would beat Streeting by 53 points, Rayner would beat him by 25 points, Miliband would beat him by 28 points and Powell would beat him by 11 points.
Mahmood would, however, lose to Streeting by 24 points.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
Image credit: Simon Dawson / Number 10 – Creative Commons
What have Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting said about rejoining the EU?
The Labour leadership crisis has pushed the UK’s relationship with the EU back into the spotlight
Labour leadership contender Wes Streeting has put the UK’s relationship with the European Union back into the spotlight, saying Brexit was a “catastrophic mistake” and the UK should “one day” rejoin the bloc.
Andy Burnham, who is the most popular Labour figure among party members and voters and is expected to launch a leadership challenge if he wins the Makerfield by-election, has also said there may be a case for rejoining the EU “in the long-term”.
However, he sought to distance himself from the discussion about rejoining the EU, insisting he was “not advocating that in this by-election”.
Last year, the Greater Manchester mayor said “I hope in my lifetime I see this country rejoin the European Union.”
In a speech on Saturday, Streeting, who declared that he will stand if a leadership challenge against Starmer is launched, said that “leaving the European Union was a catastrophic mistake”.
“It’s left us less wealthy, less powerful and less in control than at any point before the industrial revolution.”
“We need a new special relationship with the EU, because Britain’s future lies with Europe, and one day, one day, back in the European Union,” he added.
In the 2016 Brexit referendum, in Makerfield, 66% of voters backed Brexit in the vote.
In the recent local elections, Reform won 24 out of 25 contested council seats in Wigan, the borough that covers Makerfield.
Nigel Farage has already signalled that he will centre the Makerfield by-election campaign around Brexit, and has already claimed that Labour’s leadership contenders are “preparing to completely betray Brexit voters”.
In a targeted dig at Burnham, Farage told The Express: “It is increasingly obvious that Andy Burnham wants to say one thing to Labour voters in the constituency while telling Labour MPs something entirely different as he positions himself for power.
“Voters are not fools and they deserve honesty from open-borders Burnham.”
On Friday, Burnham was cleared by Labour’s National Executive Committee to stand in the Makerfield by-election, after the constituency’s current MP Josh Simons said he would vacate it to free up a seat for the Manchester mayor.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
The Labour leadership crisis has pushed the UK’s relationship with the EU back into the spotlight
MAY 18, 2026
Left Foot Forward
Labour leadership contender Wes Streeting has put the UK’s relationship with the European Union back into the spotlight, saying Brexit was a “catastrophic mistake” and the UK should “one day” rejoin the bloc.
Andy Burnham, who is the most popular Labour figure among party members and voters and is expected to launch a leadership challenge if he wins the Makerfield by-election, has also said there may be a case for rejoining the EU “in the long-term”.
However, he sought to distance himself from the discussion about rejoining the EU, insisting he was “not advocating that in this by-election”.
Last year, the Greater Manchester mayor said “I hope in my lifetime I see this country rejoin the European Union.”
In a speech on Saturday, Streeting, who declared that he will stand if a leadership challenge against Starmer is launched, said that “leaving the European Union was a catastrophic mistake”.
“It’s left us less wealthy, less powerful and less in control than at any point before the industrial revolution.”
“We need a new special relationship with the EU, because Britain’s future lies with Europe, and one day, one day, back in the European Union,” he added.
In the 2016 Brexit referendum, in Makerfield, 66% of voters backed Brexit in the vote.
In the recent local elections, Reform won 24 out of 25 contested council seats in Wigan, the borough that covers Makerfield.
Nigel Farage has already signalled that he will centre the Makerfield by-election campaign around Brexit, and has already claimed that Labour’s leadership contenders are “preparing to completely betray Brexit voters”.
In a targeted dig at Burnham, Farage told The Express: “It is increasingly obvious that Andy Burnham wants to say one thing to Labour voters in the constituency while telling Labour MPs something entirely different as he positions himself for power.
“Voters are not fools and they deserve honesty from open-borders Burnham.”
On Friday, Burnham was cleared by Labour’s National Executive Committee to stand in the Makerfield by-election, after the constituency’s current MP Josh Simons said he would vacate it to free up a seat for the Manchester mayor.
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
Andy Burnham confirms he will stand in Makerfield by-election: What are his chances?
The Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has confirmed that he will seek to stand as the Labour Party candidate […]
The Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has confirmed that he will seek to stand as the Labour Party candidate for the Makerfield by-election, giving him a potential route back to Westminster amid intense leadership speculation.
It comes after Josh Simons, the former Cabinet Office minister who is MP for Makerfield, announced that he is resigning to free up a seat for Burnham.
Simons said in a statement: “Today, I am putting the people I represent and the country I love first and will be resigning as MP for Makerfield. I am standing aside so that Andy Burnham can return to his home, fight to re-enter Parliament, and if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for.”
In what will now become the most significant by-election for the country, Burnham’s first hurdle to overcome is winning the seat.
So what are his chances?
In last week’s local elections, here’s how eight Makerfield wards voted:
Reform: 50.4%
Labour: 22.7%
Green: 10.9%
Conservative: 9.9%
Lib Dem: 3.8%
Other: 2.2%
It shows the scale of the challenge facing Burnham.
However, in the 2024 Greater Manchester Mayoral election Burnham won 62% of the vote in Makerfield.
This is no ordinary by-election, it is a vote with significant implications for the future of the country. Can Burnham, if selected, stop the Reform surge?
The Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has confirmed that he will seek to stand as the Labour Party candidate […]
MAY 15, 2026
Left Foot Forward
The Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has confirmed that he will seek to stand as the Labour Party candidate for the Makerfield by-election, giving him a potential route back to Westminster amid intense leadership speculation.
It comes after Josh Simons, the former Cabinet Office minister who is MP for Makerfield, announced that he is resigning to free up a seat for Burnham.
Simons said in a statement: “Today, I am putting the people I represent and the country I love first and will be resigning as MP for Makerfield. I am standing aside so that Andy Burnham can return to his home, fight to re-enter Parliament, and if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for.”
In what will now become the most significant by-election for the country, Burnham’s first hurdle to overcome is winning the seat.
So what are his chances?
In last week’s local elections, here’s how eight Makerfield wards voted:
Reform: 50.4%
Labour: 22.7%
Green: 10.9%
Conservative: 9.9%
Lib Dem: 3.8%
Other: 2.2%
It shows the scale of the challenge facing Burnham.
However, in the 2024 Greater Manchester Mayoral election Burnham won 62% of the vote in Makerfield.
This is no ordinary by-election, it is a vote with significant implications for the future of the country. Can Burnham, if selected, stop the Reform surge?
Caroline Lucas calls for Greens to not campaign against Andy Burnham in Makerfield by-election
'There are times when it’s more important to put country before party.'
The former Green Party MP Caroline Lucas has called for the Greens ‘put country before party’ and suggested that her party doesn’t ‘properly contest’ the Makerfield by-election in the event that Andy Burnham is the Labour candidate.
Lucas’ intervention follows a report in the Guardian which indicates that the Greens are intending to run a campaign for the by-election.
The Guardian reported a statement from a Green Party spokesperson which said: “We are looking forward to the campaign. We’ve learned from our campaigning and wins in Gorton and Denton and the recent local elections, and we’ve shown we can beat Reform. We’re a democratic party and our local members choose their candidates. We have already started the candidate selection process for any potential byelection in Makerfield.”
Responding to that report, Lucas said that Burnham winning could lead to electoral reform and prevent a Reform government.
Lucas posted on X: I hope this isn’t true. There are times when it’s more important to put country before party. This is one of them. Burnham’s longstanding commitment to a fairer voting system could transform our democracy and counter dire threat of a Reform UK government.
In the 2024 general election, Labour won Makerfield with 45 per cent of the vote. Reform came second on 32 per cent. The Greens picked up 4 per cent of the vote, coming fifth.
However, predicting the frontrunners in the seat is fraught with difficulties.
Since the 2024 election, Labour has fallen significantly in the polls, while both Reform and the Greens have surged. In the local elections in May 2026, Reform won in all the wards that make up the Makerfield constituency. Labour came second in all of them. The Greens came third in all but two. It is widely assumed that Burnham specifically is considerably more popular than the Labour Party generally and that his candidacy would boost the party’s chances.
The Makerfield by-election is taking place as a result of Labour MP Josh Simons standing down in an attempt to get Andy Burnham back into the House of Commons in order to allow him to stand in a Labour leadership contest.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
'There are times when it’s more important to put country before party.'
MAY 15, 2026
Left Foot Forward
The former Green Party MP Caroline Lucas has called for the Greens ‘put country before party’ and suggested that her party doesn’t ‘properly contest’ the Makerfield by-election in the event that Andy Burnham is the Labour candidate.
Lucas’ intervention follows a report in the Guardian which indicates that the Greens are intending to run a campaign for the by-election.
The Guardian reported a statement from a Green Party spokesperson which said: “We are looking forward to the campaign. We’ve learned from our campaigning and wins in Gorton and Denton and the recent local elections, and we’ve shown we can beat Reform. We’re a democratic party and our local members choose their candidates. We have already started the candidate selection process for any potential byelection in Makerfield.”
Responding to that report, Lucas said that Burnham winning could lead to electoral reform and prevent a Reform government.
Lucas posted on X: I hope this isn’t true. There are times when it’s more important to put country before party. This is one of them. Burnham’s longstanding commitment to a fairer voting system could transform our democracy and counter dire threat of a Reform UK government.
In the 2024 general election, Labour won Makerfield with 45 per cent of the vote. Reform came second on 32 per cent. The Greens picked up 4 per cent of the vote, coming fifth.
However, predicting the frontrunners in the seat is fraught with difficulties.
Since the 2024 election, Labour has fallen significantly in the polls, while both Reform and the Greens have surged. In the local elections in May 2026, Reform won in all the wards that make up the Makerfield constituency. Labour came second in all of them. The Greens came third in all but two. It is widely assumed that Burnham specifically is considerably more popular than the Labour Party generally and that his candidacy would boost the party’s chances.
The Makerfield by-election is taking place as a result of Labour MP Josh Simons standing down in an attempt to get Andy Burnham back into the House of Commons in order to allow him to stand in a Labour leadership contest.
Chris Jarvis is head of strategy and development at Left Foot Forward
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