Global warming overshoot threatens world's ice reserves, studies warn
02.11.2026
Ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica are melting around six times faster than in the 1990s, as global warming threatens to trigger rising sea levels, more avalanches and increasingly unreliable water supplies, according to two new reports published on Monday.
The reports by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), in coordination with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), warn of severe consequences for the world's ice reserves if global temperatures temporarily exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit.
The international community set itself the goal in 2015 of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to avert the worst consequences of climate change. While the target has not yet officially been missed, the United Nations says it can no longer be met and will be exceeded at least temporarily, a scenario known as "overshoot."
To reverse the overshoot in the long term, humanity would eventually have to enter a phase of negative emissions, where more carbon dioxide (CO2) is removed from the atmosphere than is emitted.
The world's ice reserves are "unforgiving" in their response to even temporary overshoot, the reports' authors note.
Higher and longer warming above 1.5 degrees will accelerate the thawing of permafrost, which releases greenhouse gases each year on a scale comparable to that of industrialized nations, and destabilizes the foundations of settlements and infrastructure. It also increases the risk of landslides and wildfires.
"To contain the global fallout and damage from ice loss in the world's polar and mountain regions, overshoot needs to be kept to the absolute minimum," said James Kirkham, lead author of the report Overshoot and the Cryosphere.
"Temperatures must be returned to well below 1.5°C again as quickly as possible to reduce the risks," he said.
A rise in sea levels of several metres is already unavoidable, the report added. Effective measures could, however, slow the rise to a level to which people can better adapt.
The researchers note renewable energy and battery technologies, as well as less dependence on coal and oil as ways to achieve this.
"When you miss an exit on the highway, you don't abandon plans to get to where you really need to be - you take your first chance to turn back. Continuing full speed ahead just makes things worse," said Pam Pearson, ICCI director.
"The road back to below 1.5°C may be difficult, but science and economics both provide a roadmap to a better future."
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